The Hotline’s House Race Rankings: The 30 Districts Most Likely to Change …

The Hotline's House Race Rankings: The 30 Districts Most Likely to Change ... #848   While the Senate and gubernatorial races are awash in polling data right now, detailed, nonpartisan polls are hard to find in House races. These ratings are based partly on what polls are out there, but also on National Journal‘s cumulative research and reporting on these districts, including financial information, historical data, and information from the campaigns, party committees, outside groups, and activists involved in these races.   1. UT-04: Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson retiring. Republican Mia Love, former mayor of Saratoga Springs, is the heavy favorite to win in one of the most heavily Republican-leaning districts currently held by a Democrat. Mitt Romney won 67 percent of the vote in this district in 2012 while Matheson just squeaked by against Love; without the incumbent Democrat on the ticket, this is Love’s seat.2. NC-07: Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre retiring. Republican David Rouzer has a major advantage in another conservative district. Democrat Jonathan Barfield isn’t seen as a serious contender in a district Romney won by a 20-point margin in 2012.3. CA-31: Republican Rep. Gary Miller retiring. Democrats should have beaten Miller two years ago, but a mass of Democrats in the district’s top-two primary led to a two-Republican general election after the progressive vote split in the primary. Democrats faced a similar scenario this cycle, but Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar survived the primary and is favored to beat Navy veteran Paul Chabot.   4. NY-21: Democratic Rep. Bill Owens retiring. Democrats have clearly lost confidence in their prospective replacement for Owens. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee pulled two weeks of airtime supporting documentary filmmaker Aaron Woolf. It doesn’t help that Green Party candidate Matt Funiciello could pull a significant number of votes from Woolf. Recent surveys have shown Republican Elise Stefanik leading Woolf and Funiciello picking up a healthy level of support for a third-party candidate.5. IA-03: Republican Rep. Tom Latham retiring. It hasn’t been a perfect campaign for Democratic former state Sen. Staci Appel—her missteps on national security in a debate gave Republicans an easy target in attack ads—but she still holds an edge over her Republican opponent, former congressional aide David Young. Appel holds a major financial advantage over Young, who struggled to win the Republican nomination while Appel faced no primary competition. A

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